UNWTO: International tourism can grow by 30-78% in 2022

 UNWTO: International tourism can grow by 30-78% in 2022

 - In the latest report, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) forecasts that in 2022 the number of international tourists may increase from 30% to 78% compared to 2021.

The UNWTO World Tourism Report, the first issue of this year, said that in 2021, global tourism is estimated to increase by 4% compared to 2020 (415 million visitors compared to 400 million). This is a positive signal for world tourism, leaving behind 2020, the worst year for the tourism industry ever. Overall, increasing vaccination rates, combined with the easing of travel restrictions, have helped release pent-up travel demand.

Recovery is uneven

However, the rate of recovery is uneven across regions of the world due to varying degrees of travel restrictions, vaccination rates and tourist confidence in each region. Europe and America recorded the highest growth results, at 19% and 17% respectively. Meanwhile, Africa had an increase of 12%. The number of visitors to the Middle East decreased by 24% compared to 2020 and 79% compared to 2019. In the Asia and Pacific region, international tourist arrivals are still down 65% compared to 2020 and 94% lower than that of 2019. before the pandemic as many destinations remained closed to tourism activities.

Increase travel spending

The economic contribution of tourism in 2021 (measured by the tourism industry's direct gross domestic product) is estimated at $1.9 trillion, higher than $1.6 trillion in 2020, but still much lower. much higher than the $3.5 trillion pre-pandemic level. The export value of international tourism could exceed $700 billion by 2021, up slightly from 2020 due to higher spending per trip. Average spending per trip is estimated to reach $1,500 in 2021, up from $1,300 in 2020. This is because travelers have longer accruals, longer stays, transportation costs, and more. higher stay.

2022: International tourist arrivals could increase from 30% to 78%

According to the latest survey results, the majority of UNWTO tourism experts (61%) think 2022 has a better outlook; 58% expect the recovery to take place in 2022, mainly in the third quarter. ; 42% see the possibility of a recovery in 2023. Most experts (64%) predict international arrivals will only return to 2019 levels by 2024 or later, however the proportion is already high. much higher than 45% in the survey in September 2021.

The UNWTO experts emphasized that the rapid implementation of vaccinations, the lifting of travel restrictions, closer cooperation and clearer information on travel regulations will be the key deciding factors. to the recovery of international tourism. UNWTO scenarios indicate that in 2022 international tourist arrivals could increase by 30% to 78% compared to 2021. However, still 50% to 63% lower than pre-pandemic levels.

Meanwhile, domestic tourism continues to be the driving force behind the recovery of tourism in many destinations, especially those with large domestic markets. According to experts, domestic tourism, travel close to home, outdoor activities, nature-based tourism products and rural tourism will continue to be among the main trends shaping tourism in 2022.